Why Kejriwal Won? | Delhi Election Analysis by Dhruv Rathee

Why Kejriwal Won? | Delhi Election Analysis by Dhruv Rathee


Hello friends Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Admi Party has, once again, secured victory in the Delhi elections with a massive majority It is a huge achievement- winning two elections consecutively and that too, with almost 90% of seats But what’s interesting is that this is the same public of Delhi, which had instated Narendra Modi on the seat of Prime Minister last year by according him a resounding majority And now they have placed Arvind Kejriwal on the seat of the Chief Minister, once again, with a resounding majority How is this possible and what could be the reasons behind this? Come, let us do an analysis It is not that BJP left any stone unturned in their campaigning They put in all their effort with all the machinery and all the man power that they possessed Narendra Modi, Amit Shah- 40 star campaigners were called in from outside of Delhi which included a lot of celebrities- Gautam Gambhir, Hema Malini, Sunny Deol which also included chief ministers of other states- like Yogi Adityanath There were also ex- chief ministers of the other states- for example, Devendra Fadnavis Even Union ministers had come in to campaign for BJP The only problem was that there was nothing to campaign about They had no positive agenda Shaheen Bagh… Shaheen Bagh… Shaheen Bagh… Shaheen Bagh… Shaheen Bagh… Shaheen Bagh… …Desh ke gaddaron ko ( all the traitors of this country) The sit in protests of Shaheen Bagh are all excuses I don’t even want to get started on Shaheen Bagh BJP’s entire election campaigning was about issues like Hindu Muslim, Pakistan, Shaheen Bagh, Mandir masjid Every second day one of its politicians would give out provocative speeches and talk about killing, hitting, and vandalizing They had no positive agenda to offer from their side But on the other hand, Aam Aadmi Party was its complete opposite Aam Aadmi Party talked only about positive things in its campaigning Issues like education, healthcare, school, hospitals electricity and water were talked about and only these things were focused upon The votes will go to those who construct schools and hospitals The votes will go to those who provide electricity and water The votes will go to those who lay down roads, drains, streets and those who get CCTV cameras installed We will only talk about constructive things in Delhi There was a complete positive campaign on hand while a complete negative campaign on the other Such a clear cut difference has probably never been seen in any other Indian elections till date BJP could not understand how to counter this positive campaign of Aam Aadmi Party It got so confused that it was unable to decide its own policies Sometimes, it would criticize the freebies of the Aam Aadmi Party and sometimes it would say that it would give five times more freebies Eventually, when the BJP finally released its manifesto, it offered a different type of freebies The Aam Aadmi Party focussed on free electricity and free education The BJP declared in its manifesto that it would provide free scooties for the girls As the elections neared, the opinion polls showed that Aam Aadmi Party was way ahead of BJP They would easily win the elections The BJP became even more desperate They took off their masks and openly began to polarize people on Hindu Muslim and religious lines They began to call people “Pakistani” They even branded Arvind Kejriwal as a terrorist Kejriwal is asking whether he is a terrorist Yes, you (Arvind kejriwal) are indeed a terrorist Who would believe them on such futile allegations and such a lot of negativity? They brought in Yogi Adityanath for campaigning while Uttar Pradesh, in matters of healthcare , education and law and order, comes last in comparison to other states in India His own state is not being handled well But they brought in Yogi Adityanath for campaigning in Delhi- whose education and healthcare model is being talked about all over the world So who would believe Yogi Adityanath and vote for his party? Take care of your own state first! It is interesting to note the vote share of these parties earlier and this time In the elections of 2015, Aam Aadmi Party secured almost 54% of the vote share This was almost maintained in 2020- it secured a vote share of 53.7% So the vote share of the Aam Aadmi Party reduced by a mere 0.8% But the vote share of BJP in 2015 was 32% The vote share increased by 6%. It became 38% in 2020 Congress had a vote share of 10% in 2015. This fell to 4% Observing only the vote shares, then it would so seem that the Congress voters shifted towards BJP But this cannot be said for sure because the overall voter turnout was 67% in 2015 and it is 62% in 2020 So it might also be that the people who would have voted for the Congress did not show up to vote and so the vote share of the BJP seems larger But it might also happen that the BJP supporters came to vote consistently But an even more interesting comparison is that with the 2019 Lok Sabha In the Lok Sabha elections, BJP secured a vote share of 56% from Delhi Now in 2020, it has fallen to 38% So the extra 18% votes These 18-20% people they are the people who vote for Modi as PM as well Kejriwal as CM These are the people that are not very attached to ideology They are not that attached to any party that they would become blind supporters and vote for the same party They are simply those people who feel Modi is a better choice for PM and Kejriwal is a better choice for CM What is the reason behind this? You could say that one reason is that the people have begun to understand the difference between the Lok Sabha and the Vidhan Sabha that one election is for the Centre and the other is for the state and there are separate issues on both the sides But (there’s) another reason, which in my opinion, is quite important In my opinion, this section of voters look for a strong personality in a CM-PM face or an individual leader They also look for credibility and capability They saw this credibility in Modi as PM, but not in Rahul Gandhi They saw this credibility in Arvind Kejriwal as CM, but not in Manoj Tiwari So basically, that one leader which has been put forward by the party as the CM/PM face and on the other hand, whatever the CM face- albeit unannounced as to who is going to be the CM but whoever the people feel is going to be the likely CM- for example, Manoj Tiwari The same was in the case for the PM The image of Narendra Modi as in individual leader in the minds of the people is a lot better as compared to the image of Rahul Gandhi and there are a lot of reasons for this One reason is that Rahul Gandhi is a dynastic politician He will always be burdened by the baggage of family history that he cannot do away with The second reason is that the godi media has time and again destroyed the image of Rahul Gandhi and has bolstered the image of Narendra Modi through fake and scripted interviews Similarly, the image of Arvind Kejriwal is far better in the minds of people due to his work and history as compared to Manoj Tiwari Because the history of Manoj Tiwari is that he participated in Big Boss, fought with Dolly Bindra, danced on songs like “baby beer pee ke naache” So his image automatically gets degraded in the minds of the people due to these things But a factor of Godi media definitely comes into play here The Godi media, which in my opinion, is bought over by the BJP and dances to its tunes, (it) could easily have destroyed the image of Arvind Kejriwal, if it had so desired But Arvind Kejriwal made use of the godi media very cleverly to counter themselves Arvind Kejriwal’s strategy of handling the media is the next reason, which in my opinion, is a big reason behind the resounding victory of the Aam Aadmi Party Basically, when we listen to the Godi media, then most of the opposition politicians think that they should completely boycott them and then only its going to be better if we do not go on to their channels This is what the Congress had thought of doing in 2019 It did not go to most of these news channels for an interview Rahul Gandhi hardly gave any interviews But Narendra Modi went onto these news channels to give interviews one after the other A lot of these interviews were scripted and planned beforehand But what happens because of this is that the common public will still watch the TV at night they just got to see Modi on it They just got to watch the scripted interviews of Modi They hardly got to see anything from Rahul Gandhi And whenever Rahul Gandhi was talked about, the anchors of the godi media criticized him This severely affected the image of Rahul Gandhi But what Arvind Kejriwal did was that he went to these mediahouses for interviews instead of boycotting them Townhalls were conducted in which live interviews were conducted on stage infront of the audiences This has two advantages One was that Arvind Kejriwal was seen on TV channels and since he was giving interviews, the people got to hear what he had to say for himself on the TV channels He was able to get his message across to the people And second was that whenever the godi media anchors tried to twist the narrative in some way or the other into Hindu Muslim, Pakistan or Shaheen Bagh, then Arvind Kejriwal was able to answer himself openly right there and the audience was clapping We are amongst Shaheen Bagh We have not distanced ourselves We have not distanced ourselves. We have run schools, we have run hospitals, we laid down roads We got CCTV cameras installed We have… The chaos that has been created by them within the country The chaos that has been created by them within the country It has been created because they are unable to handle unemployment The bad shape of the economy within the country They do not have the courage to talk about economy They do not have the courage to talk about unemployment They are so powerful, they can shut down their channel This is why all they (talk about) is Hindu Muslim all day One minute… Let me speak All they do is Hindu Muslim all 24 hours… This country is comprised of different faiths This country is made of all different castes Every person is ready to sacrifice his life for this country So a very positive perception colored Arvind Kejriwal’s image due to these town halls Obviously, all these interviews and all this campaigning would have been of no use for the Aam Aadmi Party had they not done any work But they did work And all of this work is visible. The people have seen it Therefore, this is the most important factor behind their victory in my opinion Their work The work they have done in the education field… They improved the schools They made the mohalla clinics model famous all over the world The electricity bills of the people were made cheaper. This was visible to the people The people can see all the work and hence they voted for him He fulfilled his promises I have explained it in this video. I’ve shown their report card to display all the works done and the places that they failed to deliver exactly in the past 5 years You can click on the “i” button to watch this video One thing has to be conceded- the core supporter base of the BJP is staunchly dedicated towards its party or maybe I should say that they are blind voters of their party Right from 1998 until 2020, the vote share of BJP in the Delhi elections has remained more or less constant In 1998, it was 34%, it was 36% in 2008, now it is 38% I mean I do not understand why these people vote for the BJP Have you become so blind in devotion for your party that you cannot open your eyes and see? Are you not able to see what the BJP has done in Delhi until today? The BJP has been ruling MCD for 15 years What has been BJP’s achievement in the past 15 years? Somebody count and tell me You would not be able to count (even) ten achievements. Because no work has been done And it is not a matter of pride that no matter what, we will always vote for one party even though they might destroy the nation, we will still vote for this party This is not going to benefit the country in any way There was such a clear distinction here- that one party has no agenda and on the other hand votes were being cast on the basis of the work done. But no, you still had to vote for them It is incomprehensible. If you are one amongst this 38% people, and are watching this video, then write down in the comments and tell us what you like so muc (in BJP) Do you like their work or are you afraid that if you do not vote for the BJP the hindus will be in danger Let me tell you one thing if you adhere to this thought observe that the Hindus become endangered right before elections Right now the Hindu would feel safe But before the Bihar elections, this topic of the Hindus being in danger would be raised again and then later it would be raised in the Bengal elections So introducing politics in faith is just a means to fool you Overall, the best thing due to this election results would be that the rest of the political parties would also feel that if they work, then the elections can be won on the basis of the work done And the elections cannot be won on the basis of hatred and negativity So hopefully, in the future elections, the election campaigning would be more positive and the leaders of the different parties If they declare themselves as the face of the CM, then they might try to debate with one another This will be a positive thing for the people and the public as well as the leaders because they will be able to discuss their agendas openly with one another On the other hand, the success of the Delhi Development Model is proved by this election result The rest of the states can draw inspiration from the kind of work done by them and can utilize this development model in their own states For example, Maharashtra has stated that they would make electricity free uptil 100 units, having drawn inspiration from the Delhi model But an important thing to note for the rest of the states would be that the Delhi model might appear like a freebie, observing from the outside that everything is being given out for free here But that is merely one side of the coin On the flip side, you also have to ensure that the economic growth is maintained properly and that the Revenue surplus is maintained and that corruption is minimized so that these freebies can actually be afforded Money is managed in a proper manner So if the rest of the states want to adopt it, then they must keep a tab of these things too I hope you would have liked this video Share this video And if you want to support my work then you can do so on Patreon.com/DhruvRathee or by becoming a member on YouTube by clicking on the join button So that I may continue to make such videos for you in the future We will meet in the next video Thank you

100 Comments on "Why Kejriwal Won? | Delhi Election Analysis by Dhruv Rathee"


  1. 0:35 Campaign of BJP vs AAP
    3:40 Vote Share Analysis
    5:28 Image of CM Face 
    7:07 Kejriwal Media Strategy 
    9:47 Hard Work of 5 years
    10:29 Core BJP Supporters 
    12:10 Impact of Election Results

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  2. Its high time ki media and modi style politics k influence me citizens naa aaye…..becoz MODI GOVT. NEVER FOCUS ON PRIMARY BASIC NEEDS OF COUNTRY…..THEY JUST 2 OR 3 BIG THINGS…like demonetisation…ram mandir…CAA..NRC…
    Even swacchta abhiyan was not that much sucessful…they claim that modi visits foreign countries for india…..but how much good ideas have modi brought and implimented in our country….ye sirf SHOWISM h…upr upr se secondary things karo takki foreign guest and indian ko bhi aise lage ki bhut changes aaye h inke time me. Modi knew very well ki india me dharm k naam pr sab andhe ho jate and they are using this only….khud violencd…hatered spread krte h n then they blame others…..MODI POLITICS IS ALL ABOUT SHOWISM

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  3. ""Educated people will always go miles step ahead in long run comparing with the uneducated and criminal minded political leader who are based on religion."" …Those people who are emotionally connected with the BJP …they will not think logically based on their jobs or development. And it will take time to change their mind….

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  4. भाई हिन्दू कभी खतरे में नही होगा, और मै केवल bjp को ही वोट देता हूं क्योंकि वही एक पार्टी है जो हिन्दुओं की पक्षधर है, अप अच्छे इंसान हो धुव भाई लेकिन मुस्लिम केवल मुस्लिम के लिए सोचता है तो मै अपने हिंदुत्व के लिए क्यों ना सोचू ? मुझे भी पता है की नेता केवल वोट के लिए ये सब करते है, लेकिन आप बताएं कोई और ऑप्शन है हम हिन्दुओं के पास? कश्मीरी पंडित याद है आपको?

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  5. Everyone give speeches but kejriwal really worked hard for the people. That is the reason he is been choosen as CM again. I believe he should have all the control over police and everything then he can improve Delhi a lot better. If he is a CM for that state then he should be able have all rights.

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  6. Aap won because of congres loss ..Bjp won 40% ..Frebies by before 6 month before election and bus free bus was great attractions for hungry public Delhi

    Delhi is worst slum where majority of public live by hunger level 3o% public living in slum ..majority need new efforts to push up development..

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  7. Sir Hume development chahiye Hindu muslim nahi bjp pulwama Mai Pakistan kar rahi thi tab to samaj Mai aaya ab samaj mai nahi aa Raha hai

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  8. We need Kejriwal like CM throughout in India and also in PM place. People doing religious politics and spreading hatred are real terrorists…

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  9. Es desh ko jitna jrurat modi ka h utna tere nhi h dhru rathi. media nispaksh hoti h na ki tere jaisa jo paisa lekar modi ka image kharab karne me lga h. Tera asli chehra loksabha ke result ke din dikh gya tha. You are bikau media.

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  10. Ek video bangladesh ki economy par bnao bahrat or pakistan kai mukable main kitni teji sai groth kr raha hai

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  11. Agree with Dhruvs analysis here. Desh ke voters evolve ho rahe hain, wo shetriya aur rashtriya politics mein fark karna seekh rahe hain. Shetriya raajneeti ka humare jeevan pe asar seedha parta, isliye ye sai hai usmein votes progress ke kaaran psrein

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  12. Ye up ki janta nahi jo dharm aur mandir k nam or vote deti h ye Delhi h Mai khud up se hu vacancy nahi nikal rahi h yogi ji kahte h k up me padhne wale bachche kam h to vacancy kam ki jaa rahi h ab anpadh ko cm banaoge to yahi hoga

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  13. bhai 38%people aik choti si soch ke malik hein hmein unko balna hoga wo bhatkey hwe hein unke pass hmein jana parhe ga har ghr se shuru karo socho wo or dhundo wo 38log kon hein hmein ab apne logon ko kabhi tanha nhi chorein ge agr unke dil mein koi galt fehmi hei wo door karne parhe gi agar bharat chahte ho to modi ko hatao please phir sb kuch hojaye ga bhai had to ye hei apka qanoon bhi bik gaya as se ziyada kiya mulk ki mout hogi ap longon ne khud bharat ko tanha chor diya ab bharat mein koi safe nhi hei aise samjho ap sabh hijack hogaye ho dont mind mein kasi ki dil aazari nhi karna chahta mari baat ka galt matlb please ap mat lena mera aisa koi irada nhi hei

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  14. दिल्ली में देश के छुपे हुए आंतकवादी हार गए हैं 😂😂😂😂

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  15. Jo Jo bol rahe he humare state me b AAP party aani chahiye…. Unke liye ek baat bhaio…. Sirf tumhare vaha hi nahi…. Jaha jaha Koi CM kaam nai kr raha vo har state me AAP party aani chahiye…. Bahot ho gya hindu muslim… Abto raam mandir b ban gya ab chalo INDIA bnate he🙏🙏🙏

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  16. Action speaks louder than WORDS .. Hats off to KEJRIWAL 💞💞💞 Lagay raho KEJRIWAL
    ..Ab next five years mai issay bhi ZIYADA constructive kaam KARNA …JO PRIMARY QUALITY EDUCATION/ HEALTH PER KAAM KARAY, DEVELOPMENT, ENVIRONMENT PER KAAM KARAY , WO HI MOST GENUINE LOYAL AND SACHA DESH BHAKT HAI ..BEST LEADER HAI 💞💞💞✌✌👏🏼👏🏼 JO COMMUNAL HATRED SPREAD KARE… DIVIDE AND RULE KARE WO DESH DROHI AUR TURKAY TUKRAY GANG HAI CLEARLY BJP AUR USKI ALLIANCE 😡😡😡

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  17. Right people are divided by Cast & Religion AAP is new party they know how to handle young generation.Not Like BJP their agenda are old like
    pakistan cast and religion nothing else

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  18. Among all these reason of winning election the heighest weightage of aap winning election is free electricity. & aap works best in compare to other parties

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  19. All correct but you think Rahul Gandi is capable , nasha kar ke aaye hai kya ?
    Charsi hai Rahul Gandhi…2 Kodi ki akal nahi hai issme…
    Pls don't spoil your image to support man like Rahul Gandhi…
    Current Gandhi family is full time bakwaas hai..

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  20. Agree with vote bank analysis (3:40) part. I think you missed one important part: freebies offered by AK. More specifically in the areas that matter most(electricity, water, transportation etc.). I think Delhi people’s choices are smart, be it in local, state or national wide elections. I am quite happy that the speculations or false or fake media are not creating any impact.. very good for the democracy.

    I want to see you as neutral observer(that’s the reason I like many of your narratives), please stay away with rhetoric kind of comments(like at 10:30 ish asking for why people support bjp). Let people vote whoever they wanted, but u keep getting fact based contents, just my opinion. I do not want to see you as another bjp basher, we already got lot 😊 (same applies for bjp supporters)

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  21. दिल्ली बीजेपी के ये 38 % वोटर मनुवादी संघी है

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  22. dhruv bhaiya aap jaisa shayad koi explain nhi kar sakta politics kash mera poora india aapko dekhe to shayad is desh ki tasveer badal jaaye

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  23. Dhruv, I usually like your videos, but why you always criticize Modi. You think he has never done anything right? Are you looking for a spot in AAP. You are an intelligent person, but common u can at least find a one thing that Modi govt has done good. Be fair

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  24. For those who said k kejriwal sb free kr k galt kr raha h …to suno andhbhakto 🥴…. kejriwal koi apne ghr se lakar nh free me baat raha h sb ….ye public ka hi paisa h ….
    Logo se direct or indirect taxes collect kr k ek jagah aggregate kea jata h ….bs kejriwal ji ne issi paise ko public me evenly distribute kea h ….mtlb public ka paisa public ko hi dea h isme glt kya kea h andhbhakto 🥴

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  25. The common refrain of the BJP wallas is that Modi has no alternatives. Modi's rise owes it to Gujarat model which turned out to be a fake development model. If the same yardstick is used in favour of Kejriwal, he can beat Modi hands down. Would the Modi supporters still say there is only one man in the Country of sawwa sau karod who could lead the country? Is it not an insult to the country?

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  26. (मनोज तिवारी का नया गाना)

    दिल्ली से बोलत बानी बुरा हमार हाल बा …
    नितीश के बताय दिहअ बारी अब तोहार बा..
    😂😆🤣

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  27. Dhruv, as usual your analysis is rational. You base your assessment on facts and figures. True, AAP had an upper hand in the elections as it was banking on the development. Notwithstanding all the pluses you have mentioned, the party has yet to evolve as an alternative to the BJP at the Centre. This could be because the baggage of one-man show. Kejriwal though a good leader, could not prove a team man like Modi. Otherwise his party would have been in the reckoning at the national level by now.

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  28. क्योंकि मोदी ही मनुस्मृति लागू करेंगे । nrc के द्वारा sc st obc का वोट खत्म करेंगे । sc का फैसला आया है कि आरक्षण अधिकार नहीं है । इसलिए मोदी को वोटदेते हैं । समझा कुत्ते ।

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  29. Rata he Enland ne bath karta he India k bareme…
    Pakistan tujhe kitna dollar diya bolna next video me…ok
    Sab kuch tu dollar k liya karta he na tu….

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  30. आने वाली 22 फावरी को चुल्लू का कुल्लू बटन दबाए भारी मतों से विजय बनाये😂😂😂🤣🤣

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  31. Bhakt ku sirf modi pasand hai isleya 38% vote diya plzz wake up my bharat guy's BJP sirf hindu muslim karti hai koi development nai desh bht pecha chalagya

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  32. One thing I found great about Dhruv Rathee sir was that he doesn't forget his Indian salutations like Namaskar and Dhanywaad in his videos. Proud !!!

    Reply

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